Kellie Sloane is poised to take the helm as the new leader of the New South Wales (NSW) Liberal party, a shift that could potentially complicate matters for Labor's Premier, Chris Minns.
Historically, the NSW Coalition has been viewed as a more harmonious conservative faction compared to its federal counterparts. However, that perception may be about to change dramatically.
In the coming two weeks, we might witness the NSW Liberals parting ways with their current leader, Mark Speakman. The party will face the daunting challenge of unifying their differing viewpoints on vital issues like net zero emissions, especially in negotiations with their junior partner, the Nationals. There’s a real chance that this division could lead to a schism within the state opposition.
This upcoming period promises to be turbulent, much to the delight of Chris Minns, who can watch from his position as the chaos that has marred the Liberal brand in Canberra spills over into Macquarie Street.
The initial conflict will center on the Nationals’ internal discussions around net zero policy scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. Given the current climate, it’s highly probable that the Nationals will either scrap their commitment to this goal or significantly dilute it to the extent that it becomes negligible.
In June, grassroots members of the Nationals voted to abandon the net zero target for 2050, and their leader, Dugald Saunders, is now confronted with increasingly frustrated backbenchers. These members represent electorates that are backlash against renewable energy initiatives like wind farms and large-scale solar projects, which they believe are being imposed upon them solely to benefit urban centers.
The discontent is being fueled by conservative groups such as Advance, which has made it clear that it intends to roll back net zero policies and revert Australia to a coal-centric energy approach.
Until now, there had been bipartisan support for the energy transition roadmap set forth in 2020 by the previous Coalition government. However, in light of the federal Coalition's internal strife over climate policy and Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this roadmap now faces serious jeopardy.
An intriguing question arises: Will the more moderate Saunders maintain his position, or will the more conservative Paul Toole replace him? If Saunders remains, what concessions will he be willing to make regarding policy?
At the same time, the senior partner in the Coalition, the NSW Liberals, finds themselves in a precarious position. Unlike their federal counterparts, who seem to thrive on their own dysfunction, the NSW division is facing a reluctant transition in leadership.
Many believe that while Speakman is generally well-liked, he has not managed to significantly challenge Minns' popularity or influence. A new Resolve poll is anticipated to reveal a decline in the Coalition’s primary vote, a predictable outcome considering the severe damage done to the party’s brand by the federal level's actions.
In July, the NSW Coalition saw its primary vote drop to 32%, contrasted with Labor's 38%. Analysts suggest that this decline could lead to the loss of about ten seats in the next election, igniting anxiety among members representing marginal constituencies. Those in safer areas are also anxious, as they may face extended terms in opposition without a dramatic shift in political fortunes.
Currently, the federal Coalition’s primary vote has plummeted to a new low of just 24%, which only amplifies fears among the NSW Liberals that they too may experience further downturns.
If Speakman’s exit is to occur, it likely will not happen until the second week of this final sitting period. Members of the moderates are hoping he can be convinced to step down, allowing a new leader to emerge without having to face immediate scrutiny during question time, thus giving them a grace period over the holiday season to acclimate to their new role.
It is likely that the first-term MP for Vaucluse, Kellie Sloane, will be the one to step into this role. She is seen as a moderate who communicates effectively and has certainly managed to draw Minns' ire on occasion.
Sloane, a former journalist with Channel Nine, possesses an engaging demeanor, excels at delivering impactful messages, and has made a significant effort while serving in her health portfolio. Unlike Speakman, who often struggled to gain media attention and whose legal-style argumentation was easily countered by Minns—who primarily communicates through tabloid media and 2GB radio—Sloane has the potential to resonate more with wider audiences.
Supporters of Sloane believe that her connections with major media outlets like the Daily Telegraph and respected radio host Ben Fordham could help level the playing field against the unchecked narrative that Minns currently enjoys.
However, it is essential to consider that Sloane is relatively untested in the political arena, having been in Parliament for under three years and being a newcomer to the party. While being a fresh face can sometimes be beneficial, her lack of experience in ministerial roles, absence of established relationships with party factions, and unfamiliarity with navigating political crises may pose significant challenges.
Recall the case of Jodi McKay, the former Labor leader, who, despite having nine years of ministerial experience prior to her leadership, faced severe opposition from within her party due to a perception of being an outsider. McKay struggled against the infighting of the Labor factions and the adept premier of the time, Gladys Berejiklian, which ultimately led to her resignation.
The public has witnessed the bitter factional battles within the NSW Liberal party, particularly leading up to the 2022 federal elections, where preselection conflicts erupted in the media.
Why does this matter for the parliamentary leader? Because without a cohesive party structure and amidst ongoing factional disputes over everything from candidate selections to overarching party ideologies, it becomes exceptionally challenging to govern effectively, whether in power or in opposition.
Additionally, the relationship with the Nationals will be further strained if, as anticipated, they abandon the net zero policy. Speakman has opted to sidestep confrontations with the Nationals on contentious matters such as feral horse management and the establishment of the Great Koala National Park, using a strategy of agreeing to disagree. Yet, juggling contrasting policies on critical issues like climate change and energy creates a complex dynamic.
How can the urban Liberals mitigate the risk of a political shift towards the teal independents, particularly on the north shore and in other regions, when constituents have indicated their willingness to alter their voting habits based on climate policy, especially if the perception is that the Nationals hold disproportionate influence?
There’s even speculation in Macquarie Street about a potential separation from the Nationals as a possible solution. While this might simplify matters in the short term, it would complicate efforts to achieve consensus on policy in the long term, ultimately making it harder to regain voter trust and return conservatives to governance.
Whether it’s Speakman or the likely new leader Sloane, traversing this complex landscape will be crucial. The risk for Sloane lies in her inexperience, which could lead to missteps that may hinder her effectiveness and ultimately render her expendable.
